The overall SY23-24 estimate (from Triveni, Dhampur Bio latest conf calls) seems to be ~29 million tons country-wide sugar production (+ 4M diverted to ethanol, off the table now), assuming ~85-90 lakh tons from Maharashtra. But these are early days and maybe based on ISMA estimates which tend to be exaggerated towards over-production.
Even assuming 50% MH production decline, (now cancelled) exports & cane juice diversion for ethanol provide buffer for enough sugar.
But ethanol sales money is realized by mills within 15 days while sugar has a much longer working capital cycle, and hence could delay mills’ payments to farmers which is a bigger avoid for the govt in election season. It’s in the govt’s interest to “allow” a higher sugar price.
Will be a learning experience to watch this sugar year unfold.
Bought Triveni, Dhampur Bio recently, holding Uttam (after selling ~50%).
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