any thought on this stock? Posting my notes below of the recent concall where management has given a 4x revenue guidance by 2027. I know its their words vs reality but just thought of digging given such a bullish estimate . if management is able to achieve even 50% of what they saying, their forward P/E will be 7-8 at current price based . One concern is last year they missed their estimate and this year they have revised down their guidance.
Concall text (Nov 23) : https://nsearchives.nseindia.com/corporate/FROG_22112023135626_Intimation_Transcript_.pdf
Financial Performance:
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Revenue increased by 5.24% from Q1 FY24 to Q2 FY24, surpassing expectations and leading to a revised FY24 guidance of 20-25% growth.
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EBITDA increased by 26.57% from Q1 FY24 to Q2 FY24, with the guidance remaining at 16-18%.
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Order book stands at a substantial ₹80 crore, including the ₹17 crore order from BSNL
Key Developments:
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New product launches, including 5G antennas, DC power distribution units, fixed wireless access terminals, interference mitigation solutions, unlicensed band radios, and 5G DAS systems, are contributing significantly to growth.
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Trials for the interference mitigation system and the air fiber solution are ongoing
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The company consolidated its Noida units and closed the Dehradun facility, transferring equipment to the new unit and selling the Dehradun land parcel
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The company expects to benefit from the PLI scheme in H2 FY24 which is ~5cr INR
Future Outlook:
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The company is aiming to achieve a revenue of ₹500 crores within the next 4 years, despite some project delays due to customer trials and low margins.
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This ambitious goal will be achieved through adding new products to the portfolio, expanding markets, entering the export market aggressively in the next year, and potentially setting up a small UK facility for repackaging, assembly, or sourcing technologies.
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The company remains confident about its growth in the telecom sector, followed by defense and then space.
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Despite the recent delays, the company maintains its focus on profitable projects and may shy away from high-volume, low-margin deals.
Q&A Highlights:
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The revised revenue guidance of 20-25% is based on existing deals and recent signings, with potential for additional growth exceeding expectations.
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The company’s UK subsidiary GORF UK Limited aims to improve customer acceptability in European and African markets and potentially provide better margins
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The Dehradun land parcel is 500 square meters and was purchased around 2010. The company expects to receive bids and determine its value after advertising the sale in newspapers
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The company expects to receive around ₹5 crores in PLI incentives for FY24
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The company’s decision not to exhibit at the Indian Mobile Congress was due to existing customer relationships and the focus on maximizing return on investment
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While the company acknowledges the potential impact of Reliance Jio’s air fiber technology, it believes it is a complementing technology to optical fiber, particularly for last-mile delivery
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