You should start focusing on 2 things.
One is ROE, the long term returns from a stock closely mirrors their average ROE. Start adding the average ROE for each stocks and the portfolio allocation weighted ROE. Now start removing the low ROE stocks and try to improve the aggregate portfolio ROE. Here the ROE trajectory is also important. If a company is undergoing large capex and current ROE is dampened as compared to average ROE of last 10 years, you should consider such exceptions as well. All such numbers you can get from Screener.
The second thing to do is start putting in expectations. For each stock based on your understanding start projecting a bear case – base case – bull case scenarios and respective probability of each. Once you start doing this, you will have an idea of not only the upside but potential downside from each stock. Here also the idea would be to maximize the expected value of the portfolio including all 3 scenarios and probability for each individual stock.
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