HDFC Bank- we understand your world

I have attempted to estimate Stock Price of HDFC Bank after 5 years, based on my analysis.

Since I am holding HDFC Bank since 2011, I believe that, Bank can still grow its book value by around 10 to 12% conservatively.
If Market rewards the bank after 5 years by increasing its P/B to 3.5 from current P/B of 3.0, there are various possibilities.

I have assumed that, it may be difficult to expect past 10 years book value growth since I am assuming that NPA(s) may rise and hence Book value after adjusting NPA(s) may not grow as fast as last 10 years. Considering that, HDFC is now merged with HDFC Bank, there is likely shrinkage in NIM and also possible increase in Gross NPA(s). It may not happen but I have considered conservative picture.

Following could be the worst, most likely and best case scenarios:

Keep in mind that, 10 Year Median P/B is 4.0 but I have considered Exit P/B of 3.5 (as conservative approach).

So there is a possibility to see reasonable 11 to 14% Price CAGR here.

Note : In real life, these estimates may or may not work as things are changing and competition from Fintech is also increasing. This is not a buy/sell recommendation.
I have assumed simple scenario. Actual scenario will be complex if there is share buy back, Fund raising via various routes in which case book value growth would be different.