Piccadily Agro’s biz which until now is dominated by the cheap cuntry liquor has an EBITDA margin of 16-20%.
For single Malt, it is perfectly reasonable to assume EBITDA Margin to be greater than 25%.
Even if Indri ex-factory selling price was 1600, its EBITDA margin per bottle would be greater than 25% ,i.e, greater than 400 per bottle.
For 20,000 per day, it means = ~300cr EBITDA from Indri alone.
Add country liquor (which is also growing) to that, Piccadily Agro’s distillery unit would be throwing out ~400cr of EBITDA in a couple of years.
Radico which has EBITDA of 400cr, trades at 22,000cr Mcap.
I feel Piccadily Agro is a bargain buy at this price.
(PS: Indri continues to go out of stock despite frequent replenishment of stock in many small towns in North India – shopkeepers says huge demand and popularity – one can check themselves)
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