General market direction is a difficult thing to predict. We have had a superb bull run during the calender year CY 23.
In the past whenever there has been a strong run up in the form of a Santa rally, i.e a run up into Dec and or January months, there has been a correction of varying degrees during the first quarter of calender year i.e during Jan -March period. So if a correction is to occur that is the time frame to look out for.
The thing is , that a lot of investors are expecting a correction ( some are expecting a steep correction) in January and some of the folks I talked to are sitting on decent amounts of cash as a percentage of overall portfolio.
Against all these views currently markets are in a breakneck rally. We are seeing strength across a variety of sectors. Many a times the last leg of the frothy rally is where a lot of money is made. This often happens because a lot of folks have moved into cash and hence selling pressure has reduced and rallies can take on astronomical proportions.
Personally I too am getting a bit worried about the pace of rally in the markets. But rather than getting into cash I have started looking out for bottoming formations in good companies and there are some such companies. I keep posting charts of those companies that interest me on the 52 weeks high threads. ( no need to name them here) . I prefer not to have too much of a fixed view regarding general market direction, mainly because its very difficult to consistently predict these things and be right most of the times. There will always be some people who keep predicting and will blow their trumpets when they get their calls right once in a few predictions.
I would like to be on the lookout for signs of loss of momentum, or extreme froth in our markets during next few weeks and months.
@sandesh Breakouts from tight bases will provide best results.
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