NRB ended the day yesterday, quoting at nearly 385. I had exited this fully in late September 2023 when it was in the 280s, and had not paid attention to it after that. Mostly, I sold out between 240 to 280, probably at an average of around 260 or so.
It’s pretty amazing to see that the price now is nearly one-third higher now! I checked the FY24 Q2 results now, and nothing really that stood out. PAT was considerably lower than Q1 though nearly twice that of Q2 of FY23. Revenue growth was also quite marginal. So it’s interesting that the stock has moved up so much even after that. Looking at the charts, I noticed almost all the move up has happened in the last week (40% up in a week)! Hard to know what triggered this up move. I don’t see any major announcement. Guess we will know post Q3 results or maybe it’s just operator action.
Anyway, only reason I am posting is because this made me reflect on my thesis and about my exit. I had initially invested in this with a longer term horizon in mind, but it moved up quite quickly and I ended up exiting as it exceeded my returns target and I didn’t see it offer much more value. Fundamentally, I still think valuation is quite stretched now. I don’t dwell on notional lost profits, but just another insight into why “when to sell” can be such a difficult decision. One’s rationale and thesis might be perfectly ok, but that doesn’t mean one’s sold at the right time.
Subscribe To Our Free Newsletter |