Taking forward the point mentioned by @Simrat, figures for Covid and a few quarters post Covid were distorted but it is safe to assume that four quarters of normalized numbers are now available. So, we can take current TTM numbers as a base and do reverse DCF. Kakinada production is expected to start by June 24, and it may take around 3 years to achieve full capacity utilization. So, one can do a 5-year reverse DCF and see what expectations are built into the current price. Using current TTM earnings of Rs.1331 crore, a discount rate of 13 % and a 5-year terminal multiple of 25 (median P/E pre-covid from 2010 to 2020), we get expectations of 38 % CAGR built into the current price. Pre-covid, long term average sales growth was around 20 % and PAT growth around 15 % CAGR, so stock looks over valued unless future growth is going to be significantly faster than the past.
One word of caution: With DCF, almost every stock appears overpriced all the time.
Even with P/E, you get the same conclusions. Analyst estimates based on research reports available in public domain show expected EPS of around Rs.84 for FY25, i.e. a P/E of 47 on current price. At 15 % EPS growth (past average), we get 25 P/E only in FY29.
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