Telecom products – A way to play 5G, IOT, drones, connected cars, smart transport opportunity

I am not an industry expert, but I am enthusiastic about network products. The telecom market is currently undergoing a shift from Cable/DSL to Fiber/5G-FWA. Let’s take a (over)simplified look at the pros and cons of both technologies:

5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA):

• Pros: Easy deployment in 5G-covered areas, no need for aerial or underground cabling, suitable for rural areas lacking broadband infrastructure.
• Cons: Limited upload and download performance based on spectrum, capacity and speed limitations due to competition for cellular network bandwidth.

Fiber-Optic Broadband:

• Pros: High-speed and reliable performance, symmetrical upload and download speeds, future upgradeability with modular components.
• Cons: High deployment cost, particularly in areas with lower population density, leading to longer time for financial breakeven and challenges in achieving positive average revenue per user (ARPU).

Navigating the tech world is inherently challenging when making predictions. The landscape often takes unexpected turns, and hindsight can make even the most informed forecasts seem off. Yet, I believe an equilibrium will emerge once the initial hype settles down, as there are complementary use cases for both technologies. Fiber will remain the optimal choice in areas suitable for cost-effective deployment, while 5G FWA will become a logical choice for challenging areas with lower population densities. The ones to lose in this battle will be the cable/DSL internet companies.

Amidst these developments, another emerging solution is gaining traction: Satellite Internet. Unlike 5G FWA, which relies on fiber-connected cell towers, Satellite Internet stands out as a genuinely wireless solution. It transmits and receives data via satellites. Use case for this service was extremely limited. It was useful only in areas, where there is no other option – deserts, inhabited land, surface affected by some extreme event (war, hurricane, flooding, etc.) – because of poor latency and high cost. Since 2014, new satellite internet constellations are being deployed in low-earth orbit (LEO, below ~2000km) to enable low-latency internet access from space. Today, in 2024, Elon Musk’s Starlink provides slightly better downlink speed and slightly worse latency as compared to 5G network. The future relationship between 5G and Satellite Internet is uncertain – whether they become competitors or collaborators. Examples of collaboration include Omnispace’s vision to build a 5G non-terrestrial network and T-Mobile’s vision to connect with Starlink, while instances of competition involve challenges to 5G access in the 12GHz network. The dynamics of this interplay will likely shape the future of connectivity.

Another crucial aspect of these network technology stacks is this: Fiber and Satellite operate independently, while 5G FWA relies on a backbone, whether it be fiber or satellite. Ultimately, I think everything is better together – a world where a 5G network is seamlessly integrated with the backbone support of both Fiber and Satellite connectivity.