What difference does it make? You understand and like a business, you think the management is trustworthy, you think they have long term tailwind (short term headwinds are an additional opportunity), and given that you understand the basic economics business, and you know the prevailing interest rates you should be able to get to the appropriately deserved valuation of the business.
Then if stars align and the business is available w/ some margin of safety for your assumptions in arriving to the valuation of the business – you buy, if not, you wait. If valued egregiously high, you sell.
What market is doing, whether price is going up or down, whether some insurance/mf is buying/selling, all this is pure noise then as long as you’ve understanding of business and you are able to witness clean / smart management of the business.
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