I did not give any kind of forward value in my earlier post 
Let me do that now.
As per Lisa Su, by 2027 we are looking at 400B$ AI GPU investment. But this seems a little too big w.r.t. other predictions – The Tidal Wave Of Rising GPU TAM Raises All Boats).
If AMD does 4B$ of AI GPU sales this year. Say the growth is 25% (Being very conservative) for GPU AI. We will let other biz to grow at 10%.
We are looking at Forward PE for each year at current price (with all other markets holding stable since nothing match 2023 doom and we can expect Embedded to revive by 2025).
Forward PE AT 148$/share
2024 – PE37 – @ 4B$ AI GPU sales + 22B$ Others @ 25% Operating margin
2025 – PE32 – @ 5B$ AI GPU sales + 24.2B$ Others @ 25% Operating margin
2026 – PE28.3 – @ 6.25B$ AI GPU sales + 26.6B$ Others @ 25% Operating margin
2027 – PE25 – @ 7.8B$ AI GPU sales + 29.2B$ Others @ 25% Operating margin
Year 2027 predictions on forward PE
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Say instead of growing 25%, AMD grows to capture 10% of AI GPU market of 100B$ by 2027. This 100B$ market prediction is at i@ How Long Before AI Servers Take Over The Market?
By 2027 – PE24@148$ per share – @ 10B$ AI GPU sales + 29.2B$ Others @ 25% Operating margin -
Lisa Su says 400B$ AI GPU market
By 2027 – PE13@148$/share – @ 40B$ AI GPU sales + 29.2B$ Others @ 25% Operating margin -
If you go by what is being predicted for NVDA AI Market share of 300B$ and AMD getting 10% of it – NVIDIA predicted to generate $300 billion in AI revenues by 2027 with a 75% market share
By 2027 – PE16@148$/share – @ 30B$ AI GPU sales + 29.2B$ Others @ 25% Operating margin
On average looking at 150-200$ price range till 2027 @ 2025PE without including
- AMD gaining DC market share from intel
- AMD going beyond 10% AI GPU market share – One leaker says 30% of NVDA shipments in 2025.
- GAAP financials – which includes amortisation of xilinx acquisition costs. This should get better with time. Though I do not know precisely how this ramps down.
- What else am I missing?
@harsh.beria93 @kondal_investor Can you please share your valuable inputs on these calculations. Unsure what I might be missing.
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