Chintan, you are right being a cyclical industry usually once uptrends start it continue till march of next year then because of weather related uncertainties correction happens between march and july and depending upon monsoon conditions it moves up and down. However during poor monsoon years (like 2015) usually uptrends continue for 2 years because major effect of poor monsoon is felt in next year crop and cause larger sugar deficit. Poor monsoon has three prolonged effect reduction in acrage, reduced production of sugarcane and lower recovery which magnify its effect. Because sugarcane takes between 10 to 15 months for full development there is no much scope for supply improvements in between times. Same stories was repeated during previous monsoon drought of 2002 and 2008. Also usually south based sugar companies are better managed like EID Parry, Parry Sugar, Bannari Aman etc and they tend to outperform in latter part of cycle from UP based companies.
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