Approximate Market Size of Nafithromycin (WCK-4873)
Assuming Nafithromycin will target drug resistant community acquired bacterial pneumonia cases. (CABP)
According to the study – Incidence and risk factor prevalence of community-acquired pneumonia in adults in primary care in Spain.)
CABP rate in adults worldwide is 4.63 per 1000 persons/year.
According to this source global adult population greater than 20 years of age is approximately 7.76 billion.
Therefore, CABP cases worldwide are approximately 36 million/year.
Study – The antimicrobial resistance profile of Streptococcus Pnemoniae
suggest that global macrolid resistant rate in S.Pneumoniae, most common bacteria causing CABP ranges from (10-46%) and can taken at 28%.
therefore, it can be approximated that there are 28% of 36 million/year that is 10 million drug resistant pneumonia cases/year worldwide.
According to an approximation out of total cases 20-30% happen in developed countries (let’s say 25%) and rest that is 75% occur in developing countries.
therefore, approximately 2.5 million drug resistant cases of pneumonia occur in developed countries and 7.5 million happen in developing countries.
Now, we don’t know how drug will be priced but assuming it will be a substitute to Moxifloxacin intravenous and similarly priced.
Price of one regimen of Moxifloxacin in US is
and similarly for 12 doses of 400mg each price in India is
therefore, potential market size is
Developed countries = $1.5 billion/year &
developing countries = $263 million/year
Disclosure – I am invested and biased. The calculation uses various approximations to reach at conclusion and therefore should be considered an exercise for educational purposes only.
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