Thanks for the long reply. Not confusing at all.
But the system you and basically what I follow is to put it in fewest words possible management quality and statement dependent. While this may be the only way possible, my query now becomes on how to determine whether management is telling actual ground econ/supplier/customer situation or whether its the case of standard boiler template of “The Worst is Behind Us.” :).
I am considering the situation as a retail investor how do we move from ad-hoc and judgement-based investment to something more qualitative, quantative or systematic based. Reason i am asking is last 4 years have been spectacular for the investment community where even with low knowledge basis(me) a person was able to get great returns on PF overall without thinking or analyzing too deep.
The Next 4 years will be dicier and stock dependent where execution has to be company dependent. The geo-pol situation is grimmer day to day with entire Middle East on edge. So i am trying to get deeper into how to judge whether buy/hold/sell on lets say 2-3 quarters of overperformance/underperformance.
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