@hardik_shah1 as I mentioned in earlier post. If management does not seem aligned for 2 to 3 quarters with actual results delivered vs. what they guided in the past you can move on to something else. Hence, its important that you have certain margin of safety when you enter or you have ability to book losses as soon as you realise you are taken for a ride. If we are in a situation where management is saying for 2 to 3 quarters worst is behind us then we are not in the right boat.
I have been invested for 13 years now. 2010 to 2013 was very difficult for me. I thought last 10 years have been good. However, I have also always felt every 2-3 years that these were the best but what will happen in the next 2 to 3 years. Its always good to be sceptic.
On geo-political and other risks, it was always there but in different forms and sizes. In 2010-2012 we had Arab spring, then Brexit, Donal Trump winning elections (market did not want him) and his anti China rhetoric, European crisis (PIGs countries), Fed tantrum in 2013, Emerging market crisis (fragile 5), Fed tightening in 2020/21, Russia Ukraine, China-Taiwan, Turkey issues, Israel-Palestine, Surgical strike, Red Sea, Covid-19. I think many more, but where are we?
So there will be always something which will occupy our mind as risk. I think its good that we remain aware but my success has been only & only due to being remain invested thick and through of these events. Only in the past couple of years I have raised cash/bonds to 50% otherwise equity it was alway 90%+.
Bring down your equity exposure if it impacts your sleep. However, never come out of markets completely based on risk on horizon. Focus on income generation through job or business you have while wealth creation shall be taken care by equity after some long years of being in markets.
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