Sugar sale quota will be higher by 10 to 15 % as compared to last year due to higher production in Q4 and higher closing stock in Q3. However, profit for FY 24 may not be 190 crs - but will be upwards of 150 crs - if sugar realisation increase to 41/42 then it could reach 200 crs !! Q1 FY 25 will be much better than Q1 FY 24 due to better recovery - recovery in April/May is lowest due to warm temperatures but this year crushing will end a month in advance as crushing capacity is higher by 30% and cane is only 8% higher.
Lower ethanol (and so higher sugar production) has messed up the sugar sales/ stocks calculations - quarter wise. But on annual basis it will average out.
regarding your points:
- Tax rate was 13% Q4FY23. Will it be same in Q4FY24? - tax rate in Q4 is lower due to the perculiarity of the business of production / sale mismatch. In Q4 FY 22 it was 17%.
- Sugar sales were 1.43 [from your matrix] in Q4FY23. Per latest concall, sales quota for Q4FY24 would be similar minus the exports opportunity. However, your assumption for the sugar sales is 1.77 in Q4FY24. - as above
- Bio-Fuel profitability will be suppressed in Q4FY24 compared to LY. - will be more than compensated by higher profits in sugar
Its a pity these aspects are not explained in the investor presentation/ concall.
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