Views on News: The annual budget and other thoughts
On 1st of February, we will have the annual budget in India. This time, since it is an election year, we will have a vote on account or interim budget.
As normal, all of the traditional media is focused on the event. Many articles and talk shows would have taken up investors’ time discussing expectations of various industries and policies that might be announced in the budget. Then you would also have some “experts” talk about what they hope to see in the budget.
The net of all this is zero. All of it is a waste of our time. Don’t waste too much time before the budget forecasting what will happen. Listen to the budget highlights or read it the next day in newspapers. Nothing earth-shattering happens in the budget in 99% of the years. In most likelihood, you will not remember anything from the last budget or any other budget. I barely remember 1-2 budgets in the last 25-30 years that I have been following the budget for.
Having said that, what is it that you need to watch out for in any budget? Broad-level allocations to different ministries and projects. This shows the intent of the government and gives a sense of the priorities of the government. For example, in the 2023 budget when railway allocation was increased to 2.4 lakh crs compared to 1.4 lakh crs the year before, it signalled the intent of the government.
Markets are at a high. Should you invest now or wait?
Markets are always uncertain. If they are going up, you feel happy and scared. If it is going down, you feel sad and scared. Ultimately, the market brings out the most prevalent emotion within you. If you are scared, you will find reasons to be scared. If you are optimistic, you will find reasons to be bullish.
The point I am making is that don’t let your emotions get in the way. Keep investing and stay invested in your portfolio. Individual stocks will go up or down but as long as you are invested in good businesses you will get rewarded over time.
The Way to Invest Now
One of the best ways to invest in an uptrending market is to do a SIP. If you are buying stocks yourself, buy on the days the markets are down. Don’t have to rush in to buy everything in one day. There will always be opportunities in the market.
With a regular SIP mode of investing, you will be better psychologically positioned than investing in a lump sum.
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