Thanks for this nudge to read Housel’s 2nd book (hopefully soon).
I had a quick (maybe a stupid question) – US market data shows an 80% chance of making a +ve return if one is held for 5 years while it’s 88.61% as per your data from the IND market.
Is there any particular reason there are >10% higher chances of a +ve return if one holds for 5y in IND than the US?
Another way to put is there’s a 2x higher chance of making +ve return in IND than the US (5y in IND vs 10y in the US).
PS – hopefully, I’m interpreting the data points correctly.
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