That’s a good question & to be honest your guess is as good as mine in terms of what is the exact NPV of Five-Star business finance. That is as far as valuation goes.
As far as pricing goes – I think this goes back to the age old debate of should financials be “priced” at P/B or P/E. There are some who argue that P/B if there will be constant equity dilution, and P/E only if no plans to dilute (like Gruh back in the day) It could be argued Five-Star falls in the latter (Gruh finance) category.
Five- Star has stated in the October earnings call (if i am not mistaken), that they ideally should not need to raise capital (maybe ever, if not at least for the next 5 years) If you look at their CAR it is greater than 50% and they have high return ratios RoA (8%+ now should come down to 6.5% steady state in the next few years). So they should be able to finance growth for at least the next 5-6 years (may be more) through internal accruals while maintaining a max leverage ratio of 4x (current leverage little above 2x)
So if we assume P/E is the right metric and just crudely straight line their earnings at 35% (which is their stated guidance) 3 years out. They should conservatively be around 2,000 cr PAT. (They are currently close to 900-1,000 cr PAT annualizing last quarter’s number) Assign whatever P/E multiple you choose (based on growth expectation then & RoE at 4x leverage) & you will get your target market cap 3 years out. (current market cap 22,500 cr)
It must be said that the above calculation is extremely crude and i am sure flawed in many ways but it’s made just to illustrate a larger point.
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