As expected, Indri story seems to be playing out in actual numbers now - excellent quarterly result !!!
I will ignore the sugar segment as that is of not much importance to us. We are here for the distillery segment.
Dec’23 Qtr Sales have grown by 60% YoY from 97cr to 155cr and by 48% QoQ from 105cr to 155cr.
EBIT has grown by 100% YoY from 19cr to 38cr and by 107% QoQ from 18cr to 38cr
EBITDA has grown by 100% from 20cr to 40cr YoY and 100% QoQ from 20cr to 40cr. (Depreciation of 2cr for distillery segment is assumed on a pro-rata basis from the total depreciation of 3.69cr)
EBITDA margin grown from 21% in Q3’FY23 and 19% in Q2’FY24 to 26% in the Dec qtr
More interestingly, sales increased by 50cr from Q2 to Q3, and EBITDA by 20cr, implying an incremental EBITDA margin of 40%. I guess it would be safe to assume most of it has been contributed by Indri. Thus, an EBITDA margin of 25% as was assumed in the post below seems to be quite conservative.
So, based on Q3 annualized number we get an EBITDA of 160cr per annum. And next year EBITDA should easily cross 200cr even with a 25% sales growth.
Now, Radico trades at almost 50x TTM EBITDA of 462cr. Piccadily with its superior growth and EBITDA margins comapared to Radico should also trade at that level implying a MCap of 50x 200cr = 10,000cr by next year compared to 2800cr MCap currently.
(PS: BTW Indri continues to go out-of-stock regularly in North India - It wasnt available at Delhi Intl. Airport about 10 days ago. Sales staff say stock sells out faster than they can replenish - one can verify this anecdotal evidence themselves)
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