Sorry for any confusion here. What I meant was that CERC and GOI believe they need more data to confirm the benefits of market coupling. That’s why they are conducting this experiment-based analysis, or shadow Exchange with market coupling. Regarding my comment about the results, I was alluding to the possibility that if the experiments fail miserably, meaning CERC and GRID India find no benefits at all in the experiments of Market coupling, they may consider coming up with a different plan.
Now, the certainty comes from the way the stakeholders (GOI and CERC) are communicating. They are adamant that the monopolistic nature is not good for the market and customers, which makes sense. CERC believes coupling is one of the ways to address this issue.
On a different note, recalling Mark Twain’s words “History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes”, I began to search for similar instances. Although it’s a bit of an apples-to-oranges comparison, reading about the NSE, BSE monopoly versus the regional exchanges and the regulator’s efforts to correct it in the early '00s was interesting. You can read more about it here: https://www.bseindia.com/downloads/regionalstockexchanges.pdf
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