Can’t agree more. Will summarize it in a different way for the benefit of future readers
- DCF / EVA / Any valuation measure is a scientific art. It is neither science nor art.
- No investor gets rewarded for estimating the value accurately. It is not like predicting scores.
- You get rewarded / penalized for the Go-No Go decision at a particular price.
- You get rewarded / penalized equally with a guy who values differently (read different assumptions and projections) the same stock for the same duration.
- The value you estimate just gives a rough idea of the margin of safety from the price. Nothing more than that.
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