For anyone trying to understand macro investing (especially the idea of changing world orders), the legendary Jim Rogers’ book “Street Smarts” is a wonderful read. My key notes below.
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Currency black markets are a gold mine for the macro investor. The % premium in the black market over the official rate is a key metric.
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The ease with which one can cross borders – is the process efficient or saddled with bureaucracy – is another key observation to make. The presence and quality of traffic signals, highways, roads etc. can be insightful too. (He invested in Botswana on this basis!)
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There are cycles throughout history between periods where financiers are prominent, v/s those dominated by real good producers (farmers, manufacturers, miners etc.) Wall Street and finance have dominated in recent decades but are now on a decline.
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19th century belonged to London. 20th century belonged to New York. 21st century belongs to Asia.
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Cost of an Ivy League education is a bubble, in his opinion, which leads to massive student debt. Education loans can’t be written off under US bankruptcy laws.
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Another problem is tenure, where professors are guaranteed employment for life. This is irreversible and prevents error-correction.
Overall, a wonderful read on world orders and macro investing from one of its greatest practitioners. Doubles as a mini-biography of Mr Rogers too! 9/10
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