I agree with your anti thesis pointers in the narrative, but in my opinion till the EBITDA margin expansion + revenue margin thesis here is intact, there is significant scope for the stock to deals with these overhangs.
Even if I am very conservative in my assumptions and take Q4 revenue as flat over Q4 last year and 20%+ margins (already delivered in Q3) as the margin base, it gives me an estimated topline for this year of ~1900 Cr. At 20% OPM, EBITDA is ~400 Cr and PAT is 200 Cr+. At even historical median valuations, there is still is significant upside in share price in my thesis. And this is base case.
What I anticipate would be bull case as like I mentioned above I expect strong revenue tailwinds from central election advertising in Q4 and Q1, coupled with the added benefit of reducing newsprint pricing and operating leverage play out. Revenue could be significantly higher than 1900 Cr for the year in that case. Projections look even much better than above if that happens. I think this is rightly reflecting in DB Corp/HT Media but not in Jagran, yet.
Not only upcoming Q4, Q1 should also be strong with the election advertising peaking in March/April/May.
Disclosure : Invested, biased. Same as above
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