– Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals

Updates on results (contd.)

Ceinsys, Monthly – Continuation of trend post numbers. Continues to do well in geospatial and engineering services businesses. The best here might be yet to come as Q4 is generally the best quarter for the business.

This might be the best way to play overall GIS enabled digitisation theme of the govt., be it in roads, power, water, rivers, land records etc.

(From FY23 AR)

AllyGrow business also is doing well and overall business continues to remain cheap despite the runup.

Wockhardt, Monthly – After breakout last month, this month has seen all sorts of re-testing of last month’s levels. It is consolidating and should continue in the direction of trend.

Results here are good as well, though there isn’t much to read into it, since thats not the thesis. Losses continue to narrow and company remains EBITDA positive consistently probably due to the US business structuring.

From today’s filing

Things of interest to us – WCK 5222 phase 3 has recruited 50% patients and is progressing well. Compassionate use in 20 patients has led to 100% cure. It will likely be launched in India in early 2025 post the 60 patient study. US phase 3 completion requires funds, so anything on the QIP would be a trigger here.

WCK 4873 will be launched in India in second half of 2024.

PML, Monthly – Breakdown with a close below 200DMA and taking support in 20 MMA.

Results here are bad with topline being flat but margins compressed big time. Management has mentioned this business cannot be compared YoY or QoQ since product mix can vary a lot between quarters. Still the fall in margins am not sure if its due to some one off expensive inventory of alloys or product mix or lower volume and operating leverage cutting profits in half or something else. These are the times a management has to communicate and strangely there isn’t even a presentation, leave along a call.

My experiment in long-term investing has encountered its first hurdle. PML continues to shrink in the pf without me doing anything. Turns out businesses don’t report good growth year or year and quarter after quarter. What is surprising though is market reaction to every bad result or even fair numbers on the results day, within an hour post numbers, as if selling wouldn’t be possible a month or two or quarter from there. That’s how short our horizons have become? In fact the most profitable strategy in this quarter I have observed could be buying beaten down names post results and selling for big gain in a week or month. (See recovery in Taal already for eg.)