Result update:-
Sumuka Agro– Sumuka has posted its profit of 80lakhs which is lowest in 4 qtr. Margin has been continuesly following from 13% gross to 6% now. Sumuka is seeing pressure in its bottom line. Although revenue posted by company is record high. Generally this pressure is seen when company wants to enter in market and wanna gain some market share.
Distribution – products are still not found on online on AMAZON and Dmart, only 2 sku were visible on flipcart
Jupiter life line hospital:- company has posted its highest profit this qtr, partly due to its repayment of debt. Company is walking the talk they said IPO funds will be used to repay its debt and they have done this. Company operate independently on
owned land.The proportion of the Indian population of 60 years or more is expected to rise to 12.5% by 2026 from nearly 8% in 2011
Capex update:- Company is doing a capex in Dombivali east for 500 beds. Kalyan dombivali region comes under smart city plan of central goverment. Project is very near to Lodha palava city and proposed metro line. Many residensial real estate plans are about to be completed.
Above image shows 2 senario
Senario 1 – project completed in FY 2026. Considering 20% growth annualy on existing hospitals and adding 100cr qtrly revenue in top line. (100cr calculation as below
500 beds – 50% occupency – 50000ARR) . With net profit % at 15% 2026 profit would be 243 cr and 2027 350 cr while taking 50 multiples i have come to target market cap.
Senario 2 -project compeltion in FY 2027.Considering 20% growth annualy on existing hospitals and adding 100cr qtrly revenue in top line in FY 2027. with Annual profit of 280 cr and multiple of 50 market cap would be 14000cr
Risk and threats
- Delay in dombivali project compelation
- Growth of less than 20% in top line
- Reduction in Net profit %
With above optimist senario CAGR return which can be make seems low and compnay is fairly valued at this price.
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