Really thought provoking questions + write up by @ankit_george above. Going through the earnings call for Q3, I’d like to take a shot at answering all the Qs asked above:
- FY24 revenue guidance is INR 610 crore, significantly lower than the earlier estimates. Definitely shakes confidence in the estimation capabilities of the management.
- Couldn’t deduce whether it was a revenue recognition issue, but the management highlighted stabilization issues at Bloom Energy which disrupted delivery schedule. They believe the worst is over and things should become smooth from Q4.
- 500+ hot boxes delivered to Santa Cruz in Q3. 664 hot boxes estimated to be shipped in Q4.
- Expecting orders of 300 units from Fluence Energy in FY25, which could increase to 1K units in FY26 and 3K units in FY27.
- 44 electrolyzers shipped in Q3. 60 electrolyzers expected to be shipped in Q4. No comment by management on transition to high volume mass manufacturing. No comment on volumes over the next few years – however, management sees electrolyzers as a BIG OPPORTUNITY.
- No exact commentary on this, but given a lower revenue guidance I don’t think they’ll achieve the INR 150 crore domestic sales #
- Expecting order book to close at INR 1,400 crore for FY24.
I covered the Q3 earnings call HIGHLIGHTS + LOWLIGHTS in this article if anyone wants a deeper dive.
Again, amazing thought activity @ankit_george !
Disclosure: Not invested. Tracking QoQ performance.
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