Thanks for sharing your thoughts mate. I’m asking what I ask below out of genuine curiosity because there may be some lesson in how we calibrate and recalibrate expectations here.
Your expectation at the beginning of the year was to close with ~20% returns. Say, you started at 100. That would mean an expected 120 at year close. Today, you are up ~13% i.e. at 113. Since your portfolio today is ~10% below top, the top would have been 125+.
Which means you had crossed your return expectation for the full year in Q1 itself.
This is something all of us face (in lucky years!). Question is:
- Did you recalibrate expectations (say, when your portfolio hit the equivalent of our 125 here, did you raise expectations for the year, to, say end at 140?) After all, the market can always swing a long way when it is in momentum!
- Did you try to get into cash? Because such pace of returns (and let’s face it, rich valuations) suggested that the market was moving ahead of fundamentals…
Essentially, did you recalibrate expectations upwards, or did you de-risk? Since you examine your thoughts, it may help illustrate something for us.
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