Praveen’s Portfolio

Hi Manohar
Yes.
The management has always over promised and under delivered. And yes, It’s disappointing to see the management pushing the targets to next year.
My investment thesis:

1. Confirmed orders from Auto OE suppliers, which are of higher margin. The growth and margin growth may lead to operating leverage and my estimation is profit of 200 cr by Fy26 04 FY27.
2. Downside risk: The stock was traind at ~400 rs even in Mar 2023, when most of the stocks took a beating. This combined with anticipated profit growth (Point 1) made this co seem like a opportunity with limited downside risk at the time of purchase. My avg price is ~532 rs
3. Even at current price the stock is trading 20% below it’s market price, which is not too bad compared to the correction that others have seen. And I’ll cap the downside at ~400 which is the price is Mar 2023

The management commentary in Q3 FY24 indicatds the delay in execution of orders and delay in growth. With this my returns would be lower than what I earlier anticipated (2-3 years time frame).

While this is not the best outcome for me, I don’t think it’s a mistake. It’s just that I’ll make a decent CAGR (15-20%) returns while I earlier anticipated a 25-35% CAGR.

Please share your view on this co and what you think of my investment thesis.

And why have you udpating your Portfolio thread. Would be a reader if and when you resume it

Thank you

Praveen