Difficult to say. If you check what happened to Equitas post-merger, IIRC there was a single day of -10% drop as all the arbitrageurs were seeking an exit when they received the bank’s shares.
In Ujjivan’s case, the arbitrageurs who got in early in UFSL were probably in a loss, and might have already exited UFSL. The arbitrage has reduced to mid-single digits which not juicy enough anyways for either fresh entry or to continue holding. So many of them could have exited already trying to avoid a month of not having shares to sell post-merger and avoiding the exit rush post-merger.
The above is just speculation on my part, no one can confirm this.
Now coming to fundamentals, I have already shared projections for Q4 and FY25. Fundamentals should support the price in FY25. Whether it will fly or crawl I do not know. The long-term story is intact, lots of things need to go right in the medium and long term for incremental shareholder value creation. These ups and downs are normal part of long term wealth creation journey, it happens in all stocks. Those who stick through may or may not get rewarded in every share. Such is investing.
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