This is a 50k macap company doing such stuff, 100cr of unaccounted beer
My point is we need to understand what kind of industry we are analyzing and what kind of corporate governance can be expect from that industry.
Think about this way som is the largest manufacturer in MP, they are in business for the last 30yrs and they might be one of the biggest non government company to provide revenue to the state. Just think they might contribute like 5% or 10% to state government revenue.
The point is just understand how deep their roots might be and the kind of GANDAGI they are dealing in, it is a CASH industry, promoter pumping hundreds of crore in business, now we dont have to be a forensic expert to understand that this is all unaccounted sale of beer which they are pumping in the business.
Please understand if tomorrow their business stops it will effect entire MP and as they grow larger it becomes huge problem for each state loosing hundreds of crores of sales.
The only thing which I wanted to verify here is weather their number which they are reporting are true or not (atlest I should know the PE I am calculating is real) as of now I could get decent evidence and waiting for some more.
No straight answer to this, one I would ask in concall as to why they did this and second if they do it again I would increase my margin of safety.
Like right now I am comfortable buying them when they are below 20PE and sell close to 40PE, if they again to such stuff I would buy them below 15PE or so. The reason I am intrested in this business becasue the product is great and the business is real.
I think you did not read my post completely let me put it again
Plus thier share holding is up by 16% in last 2.5yrs so I did not get the 2cr point
Guys I am actively seeking the guidance of seniors, my money is at stake in this company and I dont want to loose it, hence I am actively looking for some example if anybody can share where business was REAL but they had serious CG issue and business was very strong fundamentally. I want to read more of such business and see what happned with them
Just to give an example cmpanies like Manpasand Beverages Ltd did not have CG issues but were FRAUD and companies like Caplin Point Laboratories Ltd did have CG issues
Markets are sentimental, there was no reason for it to fall 45% from its high and there is no reason for it to recover 40% form its low now (promoter was a chor know from a long time it is only that people realized that again recently)
The moment there is some development on their latest factory capex market will again forget and I would expit close to 40times pe
DIsc- I can be wrong and would like to accept my mistake in case I am wrong and draw my lessons, vice versa
some good news
thankyou
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