I did some rough estimation of what could next quarter numbers could look like.
Company sold 65 million cases of Beers in Q1 FY24 with average per case realization of Rs 559. Capacity of Hassan plant has been increased by 50 million cases and has been operationalised during first week of this month. Assuming 100% capacity utilisation of this added capacity, the sales projection for beers is 78 (65 + 13) million cases Q1 FY25.
With price realisation remaining the same, the total revenue from beers sales comes out to be roughly 436 crores, with assuming 12% OPM, EBITDA will be around 52 crores. With 9-10 crores for interest and depreciation, PBT should hover around 42 crores, with tax of 25%, PAT comes out around 32 crores.
With TTM Net profit not growing, at PE of 40, we can only expect 20-30% growth in share price.
We still need to account for 10% profit that won’t be credited to company due to equity exercise done by promoters few months back. If we take those numbers into account, it means it’s currently trading at it’s fair valuations, with low possibility of returns in the future.
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