It’s my first post on Value pickr and this forum generally promotes stock discussion but I am starting with Current Market sentiments.
The way I see in short is After covid the market has been on a bullish sentiment promoted by stock price growing positively whose underline cause might be Growth or the liquidity provided by especially by retail crowd.
Currently ( April 24) I Observe majority of the individual who is earning is asking or discussing markets and stocks and wants to invest especially in low priced stocks or some fancy industries which is going though expansion phase Like solar / energy or E.V’s.
Even the old age people who generally provide gyan related to money matters and generally have negative stances on market are now changing their stance and wants to invest and trade or are doing it. Even the one who don’t understand what does stocks mean wants to enjoy the flavour. This generally marks the top or near the top most sentiments.
Even if we read or ask some long time participants who spend their most of the age says this that when everybody wants to make quick or easy money, is the time wherein an individual should be extremely cautious as this might mark the top but no one knows on which level and date but the sentiments help an individual recognize this.
Secondly this should again be fact check by the number and not the sentiment analysis.
so the current fancy names like solar and E.V’s or related are generally seeing a huge rally and if we see their business model they are generally a manufacturing firms which generally don’t command higher valuation because of the characteristics of the business as they generally are capital intensive business and to grow fast they need debt or equity dilution and hence command less valuation then less capital intensive industry.
If we look at solar industry player or wind energy they are trading north 100 – 150 times operating profits, the industry which is extremely competitive and their Industry economic viability is yet to be established, then also market is giving premium which is just going to disappoint market participants who invested in this sector.
Market bullishness , easy money , every individual wants to trade , fancy sector with no economic viability generally marks the short term top for at least medium term.
Suchir sharma of Morgan stanley’s perfectly defines India as, On India you should not get too much pessimist and also the other way round.
Over the past few years I have observe that India is very good market to trade if we take market sentiments into consideration and do the opposite.
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