I will share the changes in my portfolio over the weekend.
Until then, I want to write down my learnings and hope to follow them in the future
As I learn more and understand my position, I believe I have made 2 mistakes in my portfolio which I would like to reflect upon.
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Sky gold
I invested in the business because of the growth potential and the gap of organized retailers against organized manufacturers. Manufacturing has to catch up and hence this business should grow very fast. However, the mistake I made is the starting valuation I paid. If I remember correctly, I paid at a PE of around 45-50. That is a very high premium. For a company, that is upstream of retail jewelry, I do not think it can sustain this valuation. Moreover, it will be difficult for the company to keep up with expectations for continued years. The odds seem stacked. The only thing that comforts me is that allocation I have given. The consequences of the losses seem to be minimal. -
GMM Pfaudler
The goal of an investor is to generate high XIRR. Warren Buffett, when he started managing funds had an average holding period of 6 months or so and made a killing. Only due to this size of his funds he had to modify his approach. As someone who too wishes to maximize gains and is an active investor( to some extent) I expect my churn to be on the higher side.
GMM Pfaudler was a mistake for 2 reasons that are necessary to avoid if we want a high XIRR.
I truly believe in the business and its a very strong business: the revenue growth should be stable and the health of the business should only strengthen.
the place where its lacking is technicals. It’s stuck in a sideways trend and is not going anywhere until the Indian business recovers. The other problem and the key problem is lack of catalyst. Catalyst will reflect on the charts and hence the first problem is an extension of this one.
The catalyst I see are financial deleveraging and reversal of chemical sector. Deleveraging is a continuous process and it should keep going on but cash flow will increase only when chemical industry rebounds. and I don’t know how long will it take for the industry to reverse.
So until it does, its just gonna fluctuate.
I do not plan on selling them as the thesis pointers are still intact, but these mistakes I wish to avoid in the future.
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