I am surprised by lack of discussions in this counter on the recent market developments.
South32’s Groote Eylandt Company (Gemco) have been suspended because of a tropical cyclone – till Jan-March 2025. Gemco contributed 3.5-million wet metric tonnes – or c. 10% of world production.
This loss in production caused the global Manganese ore prices to shoot up, with MOIL increasing prices by 25 to 40%. Moil shares rise 10% after 40% hike in manganese, ferro grade ore prices (upstox.com)
Manganese ore index, 37% Mn, cif Tianjin, $/dmtu (fastmarkets.com)
The stock reacted positively over the last month and is already up more than 50% – but with operating leverage, I expect profits to increase multifold.
Happy to hear thoughts/counterthoughts on this thesis.
Disc: Invested, c.5% of my portfolio. This is not an investment advice.
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