I guess what you are saying about @virajkhatavkar and @1957’s experiences are valid. However, we are going through a bull phase and that is why low vol pfs are not good enough. I suppose if we went through multiple cycles, we might see something different.
I read what you wrote about pf volatility vs stock volatility. Your point was to add defensive stocks and you should end up with a low volatility. I am trying to come up with a system where entries and exits are clearly defined. There should be no room for discretion or judgement on companies performance.
You have said that SD may not be the best measure of volatility. What are the other better metrics that you can think of? I am interested to know and will implement if feasible.
I went through with the exercise of identifying top 10 stocks based on low volatility (with the condition that CMP > 200 DMA and 1 yr +ve returns). I ended up with the following stocks (1 yr returns given alongside).
ICICIBANK | 23% |
---|---|
BRITANNIA | 3% |
ITC | 2% |
SUNPHARMA | 56% |
TITAN | 29% |
NESTLEIND | 12% |
DABUR | 5% |
BHARTIARTL | 62% |
MRF | 30% |
ULTRACEMCO | 29% |
Average for this pf is 25%.
When I added the additional parameter of closeness to 52w high and then ranked them, I came up with the following list ( 1y returns alongside).
ICICIBANK | 23% |
---|---|
AXISBANK | 32% |
BHARTIARTL | 62% |
SBIN | 44% |
PIDILITIND | 19% |
RELIANCE | 17% |
GRASIM | 42% |
DIVISLAB | 13% |
SRF | 2% |
ICICIGI | 56% |
Average returns is around 31%
I know that this is not perfect as we are selecting today and checking how they have done in the past one year. I am aware that past returns cannot be extrapolated to the future, but was just trying to see what sort of returns of these stocks provide.
If you consider standalone these returns are not bad. In a bull market, when all stocks are doing well, this might seem insufficient.
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