Capex:
- Total capex for FY25 expected to be around 600 crores.
- Major projects include Atali greenfield project in Gujarat costing around 300 crores.
- Additional capex for expanding Xanthine capacity at Tarapur and intangible asset development.
Xanthine Derivatives:
- Xanthine capacity utilization currently at 90%.
- De bottlenecking project to increase capacity from 5000 to 9000 metric Tons.
- Price decline of 20-25% impacting topline, while volume growth around 12-15%.
CDMO/CMO Segment:
- Working with 16 customers on 40 projects, with 21 commercial projects.
- Added 12 new projects in the year.
- Expecting growth in this segment due to expansion of manufacturing facilities and regulatory focus.
- Majority of products in Key Starting Material (KSM) and Regulated Starting Material (RSM).
- Quarter-to-quarter fluctuations expected due to multi-stage products and campaign-based orders.
- Focus on reducing customer dependence on China for KSM/RSM.
Margins:
- Record margins achieved in Q4 FY24.
- Gross margins at 55% for standalone entity and 50% on a consolidated basis.
- CDMO business contributing significantly to margin improvement.
- Expectation to maintain close to 50% gross margin annually.
Revenue Growth:
- Expect EBITDA growth of 10-12% in FY25.
- Moderately conservative guidance given due to market volatility.
- Topline growth in Xanthine segment dependent on pricing metrics and capacity utilization.
- Sustainability of revenue growth in CDMO segment due to expansion and new projects.
Expansion Projects:
- Brownfield expansion of Xanthine capacity to be completed by end of FY25.
- Atali project progressing as per plan, commissioning expected in Q4 FY25.
- Semi-commercial block at USFDA intermediate manufacturing site in Vapi to become operational in current quarter.
- Setting up solar power plant in Akola to fulfill 1/3 of power requirement and reduce manufacturing costs. It may add to margins.
Financials:
- Highest EBITDA and net profit recorded in Q4 FY24.
- Consolidated EBITDA and PAT growth on Q-o-Q and Y-o-Y basis.
- Standalone EBITDA and PAT growth in Q4 FY24 and FY25.
- Return on capital employed improved to 18% in FY24.
Outlook:
- Expecting EBITDA growth of 10-12% in FY25, aiming for around 15% annual growth in the next two years.
- Focus on business expansion, sustainability, self-reliance, and customer needs.
- Optimistic about future growth potential, especially in CDMO/CMO segment.
Spinoff from Aarti Industries in 2023, now it can show results.
Ease of pricing pressure in US. Pharma sector is under valued not participated in Bull market since 2015.
Huge Opportunity for CDMO/CMO for small companies. Regulatory cost in developed countries are making drug delivery extremely costly, which turn give rise to Indian Pharma players due to good track record in pharma industry.
Leader in Xanthine.
Recent rally after result indicates valuation comfort. Any further surprise in earning can totally re rate the stock due to sector offers value.
Disclosure: Invested. Notes from screener.
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