In the interview , it was clearly said that malts are sold when it’s 2 to 3 years old to other breweries who produce blended whiskies . So the malt produced in the new capacity will not be fit for sell for at least 2 years . The problem here is we do not have a few important pieces of information…
- How much Indri is ready for sell if someone wants to buy it all today ?
- What percentage of their malt output is being used for their single malts ?
- How many casks of maturing single malt do they have ? All 40000 barrels ?
- How much is profit per case ? How much of the barrel content is lost during bottling ?
There is no end to these questions and while one can get rough estimates , how accurate they would be is anyone’s guess.
As I see it, they did not seem to be worried about satisfying market demand for next few years . One thing is clear…even if they continue selling at present rate …they would earn around 17 rs eps. Even if we give it 60 PE, the stock should be somewhere near 1k . Then with QIP, dilution, expansion and all those present unknowns, I am not getting into complex maths . In my case, I have monetized enough to let it give a long leash and ride it till I envision stagnation (nowhere in sight at the moment) .
@DrHarshilRohit It depends on the price at which they do it . Assuming 750 … they would need to issue 1.2 crore shares. So 1.2/9.4 = 12.7% approx. They have changed the authorised capital to 110 crores… or 11 crore shares . So that is the outer limit assuming lower floor price .
Disclosure : invested since sept 22 and still largest allocation in portfolio by present value.
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