Watched the interview with NDTV Profit and read the concall transcript. While one understands that mgt does not provide forward guidance, they keep alluding that EPC will contribute to 30% of topline going forward. With Rishi Sanghvi mentioning that the EPC life cycle would take approx 2 years for completion and with a minimal base of 25cr for EPC business in FY23-24 not sure how much can one extrapolate revenue from the EPC business for FY 24-25.
Assuming continuity in govt expansion plans of renewable energy, would a conservative estimate of the crane rental business of 800 cr be reasonable and maybe a 50-100cr (better to assume the lower end) from EPC for FY24-25?. With an assumption of 20% EBITDA margins from the EPC business and a 55 to 60% EBITDA margins from the existing crane business, would be best to expect a blended EBITDA of 50% approx overall on a possible topline of 850 crores. Again, without much of forward guidance on the revenue break up, order book break up and timelines for the order book to the executed, assumptions are more speculative than with a reasonable estimate.
Disclosure: invested from lower levels.
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