Hi @Shakti_Srivastava I entered Sandhar back in July 2023. Here is rationale I already mentioned: My portfolio updates and investment journey - #43 by joinjp2003
Latest on Sandhar is that they have about 400 crores of sheet metal capacity uniutilised, ~550 crores of Suzuki order to be executed over next 3.5 years and Romania plant has about 75% (~180 crores) capacity unused.
All this shall lead to revenue of ~4200-4300 crores next year. A 50 bps improvement in margin (management guidance), debt repayment of 100 crores (interest saving of ~7crores) and lower depreciation accretion due to smaller capex shall result in 150-160 crores profit next year. I have below scenario penned:
FY23 | FY24E | FY25F | FY26F | FY27F | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 2,909 | 3,522 | 4,226 | 5,072 | 6,086 |
EBITDA | 246 | 337 | 427 | 558 | 700 |
EBITDA Margin | 8.5% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 11.5% |
PAT% of EBITDA | 30% | 35% | 35% | 39% | 41% |
74 | 118 | 149 | 218 | 287 | |
Mcap at 30PE | 3,250 | 3,535 | 4,482 | 6,527 | 8,609 |
Potential upside | - | 4% | 38% | 101% | 165% |
CAGR | 4% | 17% | 26% | 28% |
There are risks of execution, external factors (logistics cost/red sea impact), and low adoption of smart locks in two wheelers.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and nor a SEBI registered Analyst. The content shared here is only for learning purpose. All the names mentioned here are for example purpose. I may buy more, exit or partly sell the stock/bonds without any prior intimation . Also note that I recently joined a investment advisory firm. My portfolio is not a recommendation for anyone. Some of these stocks might be in clients portfolio as well so please be aware of vested interest.
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