A bit late but here it is
My quarterly update
There have been a few changes which I will explain and maybe and a few possible mistakes that I want to delve deeper into.
I have exited South India bank, GMM,NH, Sanghvi movers and added Nuvama and Max estate.
Why did I sell each of them?
Slow to no growth: GMM and NH. Sold GMM ±5% of cost and NH at +5% I think. not much to gain or lose.
South India bank: I found it better to allocate capital in other businesses and add Nuvama.
Sanghvi movers: Thesis of exponential increase in profitability wouldn’t have been possible because of focus in EPC. Hence, thesis was proven wrong( I still see good growth potential though). luckily ended up in profit anyways.
Why added these? Nuvama I have started a thread and you can check my thesis there. I think the upside is high and downside limited. elements of cyclicality are present but it should work out for the better in the next 3 years hopefully.
Max estate has really strong growth ahead and I believe that Real estate will be one of the biggest winners. Hence, went for it.
Here is my take on the relevant businesses
Added significantly in Hotels and Goodluck,Prestige during the election fall and Pennar after its results. Mainly because the thesis is getting priced right in hotels and the guidance Is very strong for the other with good margin of safety. Prestige is in solid momentum and the growth is intact, correction gave good valuations at around Mcap/presales of 2-2.5x
EIH deserved a higher allocation and got it right after the election correction
You might notice a small drop in the other positions its because I added fresh capital and did not take a basket approach to it.
Anyways, here are my potential worries ahead.
Samhi: it’s a turnaround bet and hence can go wrong. Which is why it concerns me that it’s a high allocation idea. Its going well so far and the prices I got while adding were very good and hence feel good about it but its a potential worry.
Auto anc dilemma: I consider Sandhar a better business than RACL yet RACL has a higher weitghage. It’s my bias because I studied RACL first. I will probably correct it and adjust accordingly
TIIL: great business but I am already playing the theme with 2 good business. Do I even need it with such low allocation? even if it does great I cant do much and I am 100% invested right now so would prefer it.
Also, Missed airman and Welspun. Had mentioned above wanted to study them and see what to do.Arman looks good but out of cash rn. Welspun is a bit expensive for me.
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