My India portfolio is again on track as consumption related stocks have finally started moving after the Election result. For now I see them as hope trades. It may last till the next budget. In this quarter portfolio winners are Trent, Pidilite and Granules India. Pidilite is a 10 bagger in 10 years as I hold the stock with a “no matter what” attitude:) Whereas Granules India is giving 6X return in 6 years.
NVIDIA is the first 10X in my US portfolio. In my 10 years of investing journey (6 years for US stocks) I got blessed with 10X return 4 times. Those were Vaibhav Global, Deepak Nitrite, Pidilite and Nvidia. Except DN I am still holding the other 3 in my portfolio. Both DN and Nvidia reached 10X within 2 years of initial investment. Ultimately I sold DN with a 6X return. This time I am going to sell 50% of my Nvidia holding after the 1:10 stock split takes effect as early as next week. Kabhi na kabhi to 10X return ka maza lena chahiye:)
I personally believe that Nvidia has more room to run. In future all CPU intensive operation will be offloaded to GPU and as a result Nvidia being a monopoly will grab the lion share of new industry which needs support from accelerated computing (for example self driving car tech). Also as expected, hyper-scalar companies like MSFT/AMZN/GOOG have started showing cloud service revenue growth acceleration as developers are experimenting with training new models to solve everyday problems. As a result my Microsoft holding is giving 4X return in 4 years.
At the same time much anticipated revenue growth acceleration of US based SaaS/software infrastructure companies have not been realized yet. In fact, for a few companies growth is going in the wrong direction. The usual chorus here is that big enterprises have stopped buying these softwares due to the so -called macro issue. Somehow the third layer of AI stacks are not showing traction in the middle of raging bull AI hype. Growth may come back when few more AI applications appear in the market. Or in the worst case scenario few of them will be disrupted by newcomers. But whatever the case, my strong belief is that the winner(s) in this space will have a hell of a run for decades to come. As it’s difficult to pick winner(s) so early in this space so I have invested equal amounts in all such companies. Hopefully few of them will turn out to be multibagger even if others falter.
A special mention for cybersecurity company Crowdstrike. My thesis of investing in CRWD was their cloud centric clean architecture to solve some of the tricky issues in the cybersecurity space. This is why they are now beating legacy companies like Palo Alto Networks and Splunk w,r,t winning new multi million dollar deals with their platform centric architecture. I have been holding CRWD from a much lower level (3X return), stocks fell more than 65% from top during the 2022 bear market. Since then it has recovered well and surpassed previous highs convincingly. Now good news is that it’s being added to the prestigious S&P 500 index - this cements its dominance in the field they are operating. At the same time I am patiently waiting for my portfolio stocks Palantir and Trade desk to be added to the same index in the near future. Interestingly all 3 companies are run by founders and I can notice the same confidence/vibe from the respective owners on their products while listening to their quarterly earnings calls.
Interesting fact, during 2022 when US FED started raising interest rate aggressively then majority predicted US recession in 2023. Similarly we all know how exit polls predicted our own election results. Moral of the story is that we need to be careful when there is a widespread consensus view/opinion on some future event’s outcome. Need to be extra cautious while investing based on such a consensus view. In both times I benefited by just doing nothing:)
Disc. This is not a buy/sell recommendation. Biased as invested in all stocks discussed above. Not a SEBI registered advisor.
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