Had some views (not necessarily on Aban), so just sharing.
I personally have a limit of 20% to allocate to value buys and turnarounds.
Few things at the top of my mind that I look for in a turnaround or value buys (not in any particular order and not all the below features one maybe able to find in a single company).
- Things can’t get worst for the company from here on (busines performance wise and technically too most of the selling done and the stock has bottomed out).
- Valuations are very cheap and downsides minimal/limited.
- If one can arrive at a conclusion that if market goes down then this stock will outperform, then all the more better.
- A new jockey at the helm of affairs who comes in with a good reputation and credibility.
- A stated and visible change in the underlying business structure to remedy the problems of the past.
- Favorable business scenario for the company in future (things can only get better and one can map that to a personally suitable timeframe).
- Cash flow situation looks like improving in future.
- Positive policy initiatives from the government for the sector.
- De-leveraging balance sheet possible and visible in future.
- Company holding out and performing decently in a bad business environment for the sector.
- Visible initiatives to bring in operational efficiencies and to keep operational costs and other expenses down.
- Would the expected returns cover the opportunity cost lost and in fact give decently more returns than the opportunity cost, for the specified duration that one intends to hold.
There will be more criterias as well. Had these at the top of my mind.
Answering these questions may help you in taking a call with respect to Aban.
Regards.
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