I am not really sure what % of GMV converts to revenue. For FY 24, GMV was 15000 Cr and revenue was 10000 Cr. So 67% GMV got converted to revenue. Now they said FY24 had 25% GMV growth over FY23 in Q4 concall. So for FY23 GMV was 12000 Cr and revenue was 10000 Cr so the conversion was 83% there. With SAAS business picking up and contributing more, this conversion would go down further and I am not sure how much out of 5 Billion would actually convert to revenue. If we assume that 50% of 5 Billion converts to revenue then it will be 2.5 Billion USD. Last full year revenue was around 1.25 Billion USD. So it is just doubling the revenue in 5 years and with 5% PAT margin on a revenue of 21000 Cr, PAT comes around 1050 Crs. This is 5 times current PAT so we will end up with an EPS of ~50. It will need a highly premium valuation of 100x to become a 10 bagger from here in the next 5 years. Ofcourse the above numbers are based on assumptions and we need to get a sense from the management as to how much of those 5 Billion USD would actually translate to topline.
Somebody from this forum who has done more research on the business can throw some more light on this. It would be really helpful to dissect this better and get a sense of where the business is heading. I am hoping that 5-5-5 strategy is not an eyewash.
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