Agarwal Industrial Corporation Ltd – Profitable Microcap with high growth potential in infrastructure space

My thoughts on the latest guidance given by the promoters.

1. Volume growth: The management hinted towards growing the volume to 6lakh tones per annum for FY25. For them to achieve this number they will have to grow volumes by 36% annually (which they say is possible because of the factors like: Road infrastructure development and aftermarket, government spending)

2. Realizations: Better EBITDA per tonne and margins are expected in this financial year. If they are able to achieve realizations around Rs. 3900 per tonne. Then with the estimated volume growth they should be able to achieve an estimated EBITDA of =6,00,000 * Rs 39,000 = Rs 234Cr approx.

3. If we keep the pat margins unchanged (keeping the interest cost similar for the sake of the calculation) then the company should achieve a pat of approx Rs148 Crs with EPS of = Rs148 / 1.50 = Rs 98 (100 round off)

4. So can anyone from the esteemed members help me understand how does the valuation part work here: Company is trading at a P/E multiple of 11.60x for FY25 (considering this is the best case)
   Even if the company’s realizations do not improve and remains same then also they will be able to do an EBITDA of 216Cr (@Rs 36,000 realizations) and a pat of 130Cr
   Why is a company poised for growth is trading at this valuation. What are the risk factors here that the investors are taking into account?

Also the management has hinted towards doubling the volume in the next 2-3 years. So where does the valuation part lies. how should we value a company like this which claim that it is the largest bitumen logistic suppler player in the country.

As a disclosure, I am invested in the company and am trying to evaluate whether one should hold or dig deeper to find value.