There is another concern – the competitive concern. You already see TVS (52%) and Bajaj (22%) recording good retail growth compared to Ola (9.3%). Hero VIDA not that impressive in terms of numbers yet. Ola has sustained itself with huge discounts and pricing and qualifying for PLI schemes will also help them.
But the biggest upheaval in the market will come when Activa Electric is introduced. After Activa Electric has been in the market for a while only we will know which way things are going. HMSI has a strangle hold on the Scooter market (42% Activa, 6% Dio) and if Activa Electric is priced competitively they will be able to get a good conversion of customers from ICE to Electric.
Also, EV will only hit 25-30% of the market if Honda releases Activa Electric by then. Without that release, EV will not be 30% of the overall 2W market unless there is some kind of government intervention.
FAME subsidy is already gone. The new subsidy is called EMPS and is based on battery capacity. That also ends on June 30th, we have to wait for new budget.
Another factor to consider is that Bhavish Aggarwal might be spreading himself thin, you have Ola Mobility, Ola Electric, and now their new AI venture is there. Ola Electric is also looking at car space which is a different beast all together.
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