Sugar quotas for all quarters have been slightly higher than last year – so sugar sales will be ok. Sugar stocks have built up due to ethanol ban. Ethanol sales will come down a lot. Even grain based distilleries didnt work for sometime as maize prices had shot up and maize-based ethanol price was increased only later (that too with a lot of uncertainty and delays).
Performance of all sugar companies will be lower – some will be less affected than others. Companies which have dual fuel ethanol will be affected lesser.
20% target cannot be met without sugarcane based ethanol – more than 60% of ethanol is from sugarcane. Many cane based ethanol plants are being converted to dual fuel. I dont know what will happen to maize prices – and whether maize based ethanol prices will be increased further to accommodate high maize price. Prices of all grains are going up due to maize going up.
For keeping the price of sugar low (which is not good for health !!) prices of all grains are going up.
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