In my opinion the sugar price may continue to rise following such a strong bullish divergence or the sugar prices may again fall after 1-3 months(around Oct – nov) when the tug o war between all the stake holders (mills, state govt and farmers) begins over fixation of Sate Advisory Price for procurement of sugarcane by the UP / TN sugar mills. And also the announcement of aggressive sugar export subsidy policy by the central government.
If the prices do fall again, in all probability it will lead to formation of inverted head and shoulder bottom formation and then the cyclical uptrend in sugar sector will begin.
By April / may, India would have exported its excess sugar at a subsidised rate, manufactured record quantity of Ethanol for the ethanol blending programme and also sugarcane farmers would have finally shifted to alternate crops. Thus heralding a two year long rally in sugar stocks.
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