Hi- None can predict cotton price as it is a global commodity which depends on many factors out of anyone’s control like rainfall, acreage, availability of quality seeds etc… I found it very uncomfortable Ambika management blocking so much money on inventory… Cotton prices rose after covid for which Ambika got benefit and I am reasonably sure that Ambika mngt also didn’t predict it ( If they have predicted cotton price rise, they would have stocked up taking loans as their balance sheet is debt free) . So when they couldn’t predict cotton price movement in the past, I should reasonably assume that Ambika may not successfully predict even now and hence they may lose if cotton price falls…If they are lucky enough, cotton price rises and they pocket the benefit of rise on the cotton stock…… And when Ambika mngt with decades of experience couldn’t predict cotton prices, I don’t think outsiders like us can predict its movements with certainty……current facts are cotton seed producers like kaveri mentioned that seed stocks are low… but at the same time, cotton yarn/ fabric exports are under severe pressure as consumers in western markets are reeling under financial stress owing to high inflation etc and hence their discretionary spends are affected… so quite difficult to make a prediction with certainity reg cotton price…
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