Sugar Cycles: 7-8 years of losses followed by 2-3 years of super gains!

According to Assocham study sugar prices in india is likely to firm up from summer of 2016.
Assocham press release about sugar study. Also as per recent concall of EID Parry, bounce in sugar prices from recent low of around 11 cent / lb to 15 cent / lb is technical in nature as most global projections estimates deficit of around 2-3 million tonne for consumption of around 182 million tonne for year 2016. However projection for 2017 is more supportive of global sugar prices. Also US FAO project that sugar prices can touch 18-19 cent / lb based on fundamental factor by 2017 which can be fair value of sugar considering expected demand supply scenarios. However from 2018 again some surplus is possible. All bounce back in commodity prices start with bit skepticism but gain ground based on future events playing out. However with severe deficit of monsoon in 2015 usually shock in sugar cane supply mostly surprises in downside and expectation of sugar prices touching 40-45 range sometimes in next 2 years in indian market cannot be rules out as agricultural product prices in india moves up very sharply in short duration. Also logically it does not make sense that in a country where hardly any vegetables or food staples available below Rs 40 only sugar is available below Rs 30 which is more difficult to produce and consumes more time , money and efforts in producing 1 kg of sugar than any other crop based food items.